hahah no ****in way.
lol
T2 opened on a friday, right? This one will be frontloaded starting on Tuesday night, it has a good chance to putter out by Saturday, IMO. I guess it will probably go over 45 million, but at +300 I like this one. Everyone thinks it's going to be huge, but almost everyone has been wrong the last 2 weeks also.
lol
T2 opened on a friday, right? This one will be frontloaded starting on Tuesday night, it has a good chance to putter out by Saturday, IMO. I guess it will probably go over 45 million, but at +300 I like this one. Everyone thinks it's going to be huge, but almost everyone has been wrong the last 2 weeks also.
Definitely more hype for T2, and it looked better... But $45 million is a bit low. T3 won't be near as frontloaded as the Matrix 2 was, and its always tough to tell how good a movie will do on a Friday that is July 4th. I'd say lay off the line at Intertops, cause there's not much value there, and wait for Olympic, WSEX, and Bodog to post.
I don't know where you're getting your information but Box Office Mojo has T2 at 42 million for the 3 day, and that's ADJUSTED. Where does it say it opened on a Wednesday? This movie is Rated R, by the time friday rolls along all the hard-core Terminator fans will have seen it, that leaves the rest of male action movie fans that are over 17, which might not be a lot considering how a lot of people thought the first previews looked hella cheesey. And I'm waiting for the buzz index to update but it's got a HORRENDOUS buzz score so far. You can divide Reloaded's old score by T3's 6 times.
It's NOT a big underdog bet. A big underdog bet is +1200, not +300. +300 would mean that there is at least a 25% chance that this film stays under that number, and, frankly, there is a less than 10% chance that it stays under $45mil.
Oren, T2's adjusted per theater numbers were about $19mil for the 3 day and $30mil for the five day. This film is being released in uwards of 3700 theaters, with more than 7500 prints. With 3700 theaters, using $19mil, would yield a 3 day of $70mil, roughly, and a 5 day of $110mil, roughly. That is if you assume NO increase from T2. Even if you assume a slight decrese and put the numbers at $15k for the 3 day and $23.5k for the 5 day, you are talking about $55.5mil for the 3-day and $87 for the five day.
Again, there is almost ZERO chance that this film goes under $45mil. You know I'm a pretty big proponent of value betting, and, I will be honest. If I could get 10/1 odds on the UNDER $45mil, I STILL wouldn't bet it. Save your money.
JP
Oren, T2's adjusted per theater numbers were about $19mil for the 3 day and $30mil for the five day. This film is being released in uwards of 3700 theaters, with more than 7500 prints. With 3700 theaters, using $19mil, would yield a 3 day of $70mil, roughly, and a 5 day of $110mil, roughly. That is if you assume NO increase from T2. Even if you assume a slight decrese and put the numbers at $15k for the 3 day and $23.5k for the 5 day, you are talking about $55.5mil for the 3-day and $87 for the five day.
Again, there is almost ZERO chance that this film goes under $45mil. You know I'm a pretty big proponent of value betting, and, I will be honest. If I could get 10/1 odds on the UNDER $45mil, I STILL wouldn't bet it. Save your money.
JP
By the way, keep something else in mind. Same weekend, last year, MIB2 opened up to an average of about $25k per theater for the five day weekend and $15k for the three day weekend, and, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that T3 will DEFINATELY open bigger than MIB2.
I think that a safe bet for T3 is about $17.5k for the 3 day and about $26k for the five day. That would put it at around $65mil and $96mil respectively. This film is going to open up amongst the widest openings of all time. Keep that in mind also.
Oren, just a friendly wager. I will give you 8-1 odds on the under $45mil if you want to take it. Your $100 to my $800? Not sure if you wanna do this. If you don't, that's cool. It was just an idea. Not a big deal. Just let me know on here or you can email me at jcambert@bellsouth.net
JP
I think that a safe bet for T3 is about $17.5k for the 3 day and about $26k for the five day. That would put it at around $65mil and $96mil respectively. This film is going to open up amongst the widest openings of all time. Keep that in mind also.
Oren, just a friendly wager. I will give you 8-1 odds on the under $45mil if you want to take it. Your $100 to my $800? Not sure if you wanna do this. If you don't, that's cool. It was just an idea. Not a big deal. Just let me know on here or you can email me at jcambert@bellsouth.net
JP
I know about MIB2. I'm saying here that there is definitely a chance that T3 will do worse than that film. Honestly, I don't think many people give a crap about this movie anymore. They were hyped before seing the previews, and now, it's more or less "blah." MIB was family-friendly. It was PG, no? And the theater count you named is news to me, MOJO's estimate is 3400 theaters. I'm pretty surprised that they are going to bother with 7500 prints... They must know that there isn't that much demand for this movie. I think there's a good chance I hit this. It's going to bomb! INCOMING!!!
I read it on one of the message boards. And, they are bothering with that many prints and theaters because this will be one of the summer's biggest films, with one of the biggest budgets.
Anyway, we're on. On our honor. If I lose, I cough up the $800 and if you lose, you cough up the $100. And, yes, we can do it through neteller.
May the best man win.
JP
Anyway, we're on. On our honor. If I lose, I cough up the $800 and if you lose, you cough up the $100. And, yes, we can do it through neteller.
May the best man win.
JP
By the way, just as an indicator, go to moviefone.com and check out how many screens your local theaters are showing this movie in. There is one close to my house which is showing this on SEVEN DIFFERENT SCREENS. Do you know how huge that is? And almost every theater near me is showing it on at least 3. The screen/print count for this film will be HUGE. It will be absolutely HUGE. That alone should be enough to ensure about a $65 million 3 day and a $100mil 5 day.
JP
JP
+300 isn't a big underdog bet? Sure seems like it to me... Laying 1 to win 3x that.
You say that it has a less than 10% chance of staying under $45 mill -- based on what numbers?
Why are you assuming that T3 will at least match what T2 did? T2 *LOOKED* awesome. T3 doesn't, and people know it... There's not a whole lotta buzz about this movie -- and its no secret why Cameron and Hamilton didn't sign on. A female terminator? I almost choked laughing.
Why do you assume T3 will be much bigger than MIB2? MIB2 was coming off a *recent* big hit, and it had lots of star power -- T3 does not.
"I am a machine." good god... No one is buying that this will be good.
And keep in mind that just because there is a lot of screens for this particular movie, doesn't mean there will be anyone filling those seats. I live and interact with a pretty big part of the target market for this film (20-25 year old males), and *NO ONE* is even talking about it -- where as Matrix 2 they were.
I smell a *flop*.
But I'll stick with my ~$65 million dollar weekend that I predicted a week ago.
You say that it has a less than 10% chance of staying under $45 mill -- based on what numbers?
Why are you assuming that T3 will at least match what T2 did? T2 *LOOKED* awesome. T3 doesn't, and people know it... There's not a whole lotta buzz about this movie -- and its no secret why Cameron and Hamilton didn't sign on. A female terminator? I almost choked laughing.
Why do you assume T3 will be much bigger than MIB2? MIB2 was coming off a *recent* big hit, and it had lots of star power -- T3 does not.
"I am a machine." good god... No one is buying that this will be good.
And keep in mind that just because there is a lot of screens for this particular movie, doesn't mean there will be anyone filling those seats. I live and interact with a pretty big part of the target market for this film (20-25 year old males), and *NO ONE* is even talking about it -- where as Matrix 2 they were.
I smell a *flop*.
But I'll stick with my ~$65 million dollar weekend that I predicted a week ago.
Alright, we're on. The theaters in my old neighborhood have it on a modest amount of screens, I didn't see one theater with more than 2 screens. But it might have been playing in almost all the available theaters, not sure. If I win I'll consider myself lucky, not the best man,
And you can count on receiving that 100 bucks in the likely event that I lose. But, just because there's tons of available tickets available for this event doesn't necessarily mean there will be people to buy them up.
T3
T3
